Why you shouldn't buy knives in October 2025 after Covert Skins trade-up suck up!
After Valve’s latest CS2 Trade-Up update allowing covert skins to turn into knives and gloves, the skin market has crashed by billions. Discover which knives and gloves to buy, which to avoid, and how to profit from the new covert-skin demand surge.
CS2 knife trade up update literally the most goated thing to come out of cs in years. I can actually afford a knife at a reasonable cost soon. I feel like a high schooler again with knife prices being affordable. I actually can't believe my eyes!!
But on the other hand
CS2 skin market crashes by $1.6 billion after latest update Players can now trade five covert items for a knife. As a result, red-tier weapons have shot up in price by 10–20 times, while knife prices have plummeted to absurd lows. The capitalization of skins—once considered a safe investment—is now on the brink of total collapse. Gaben is crying.
gaben
$1.3B vanished from CS2 in hours one of the largest digital market drops since the 2010 flash crash.
✅ Which items might be good to buy (or at least seriously consider)
Covert skins: With their value surging as crafting fuel, these look like the short‐term play. If you can pick up desirable Covert skins before prices fully settle, there may be upside. For example, skins that were mid-tier before may now be in demand.
Extremely rare knife or glove items that have unique features/patterns/float values and are not easily craftable or whose supply is effectively capped. If you find a “unicorn” item that is still rare despite the trade-up change, the drop might be less severe and could hold decent value.
Items with high “use case” (e.g., the skin is desired in tournaments/streams, or by major players) may have resilience even in a depressed market.
❌ Which items avoid or be very cautious with
“Mass-market” knives and gloves that were previously overpriced thanks to rarity but now are craftable — these are likely to drop further. Reports suggest a 20 %–50 % drop in value for many knives/gloves. CSMarketCap+1
Items relying purely on “rarity” count but without distinct attributes (patterns, float, story). If everyone can craft them, rarity alone doesn’t save their value.
Buying in expectation of “stabilization at old high levels” — multiple analysts expect that knives/gloves may settle at around half of their previous value. Club386
What not to do: pitfalls & mistakes to avoid
Don’t assume the market will “bounce back” to previous high levels quickly. Analysts expect a new baseline ~50 % of previous values for many items. Club386+1
Don’t buy purely for “flipping” unless you have deep market understanding and timing; this update caused very fast movements and high risk.
Don’t ignore condition/float/pattern — with supply increasing, the premium will shift more to special attributes rather than just “knife/glove = valuable”.
Don’t ignore trading fees/market restrictions: even if you acquire an item cheap, listing and selling it may take time and cost.
Don’t assume Valve won’t make further changes. Given the scale of disruption, it’s likely we may see follow‐on adjustments, which adds risk.